India’s road to recovery: Have COVID-19 infections crossed its peak in India?

Virus Outbreak India

As we all know that India along with the world for the past several months has been fighting with novel Coronavirus. After America and many European countries, this virus created a horrendous situation in India. But month of October has brought some relief for the country. According to the latest figures, India is facing a decline in positive cases of Coronavirus. In the middle of September 2020, India reached its high number of positive cases of COVID-19 thus far. It recorded more than a million active cases. After that the country witnessed a rise in number of recoveries and a steady decrease in number of Covid-19 infections. There is also a stable decline in the total number of deaths while sample testing is increasing in India. More than a million samples are being collected every day.

So, going by the data of month of October, can we say that India is finally on a road to recovery from the deadly pandemic and have crossed the peak of COVID-19 infections? Is it a good sign for the Indian economy which went through its worst phase in decades cause of the lockdown? Let us discuss more in this article.

Current situation of COVID-19 cases in India

India has recorded more than 8 million cases as of 2 November 2020. From this about 5.6 lakhs are active cases and above 75 lakhs patients recovered. However, more than 1,20,000 infected persons lost the battle against coronavirus. According to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) up to November 1, 2020, India had tested 11,07,43,103 samples for COVID-19 in the country. It is noticeable that the rate of positive cases is slowly declining in India.

Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) states that the lockdown period helped to flatten the curve of coronavirus. From March, positive cases of coronavirus were increasing at a very high rate but for the past few weeks, the graph shows a stable decline in these active cases.

Where active cases are reducing, some states and union territories of India have also noticed a fall in the curve of COVID-19 infection. But some states of India are still showing signs of severe distress related to the COVID- 19 situations. In the last few days, Kerala featured its eight districts in the list of top 10 districts in the list of the most virus-affected districts. Kerala has emerged as the latest COVID-19 hotspot in India. Other worrying states are Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh and Delhi which are experiencing the most number of corona positive cases per day in India. Maharashtra also continues to be among the worst affected regions by the pandemic.

For the latest data on COVID-19 in India click on the link given below:

https://www.mygov.in/covid-19

Recovery from pandemic in India

India is accountable for about 10 per cent of the total worldwide deaths due to the pandemic. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is less than 2 per cent in India. Case Fatality Rate or Ratio (CFR) calculates the deaths out of the total number of people infected by disease during a particular period. People in India are recovering at a very good speed. Because of this India is having 80% of the recovery rate around the world.

The decline of positive cases of Coronavirus

India is the second-largest country in terms of population. Despite this large number of people, cases in India are gradually decreasing. A group of India’s top scientists prepared a mathematical model for studying the situation of Coronavirus. The latest mathematical model shows that India has surpassed its peak of active cases. As per the calculated data, September 17 of 2020 is considered as the turnaround date. This is so because from this day India has seen substantial reduction in active Coronavirus cases and new infections.

Where on 17th September active cases were over 10.17 lakhs, on 21st September it was below 10 lakhs. Now, the total number of active cases is less than 6 lakhs. This decline in the active cases of COVID-19 is an encouraging indication for our country.

Will this decline of active cases lead to the end of COVID-19 in India?

This decline in the number of positive cases brings hope among the scientists as well as governments. The Indian scientists involved in the latest mathematical model stated that they are studying the model and looking at the rate at which people are getting affected, the rate at which they are recovering or dying. They stated India has passed its worst phase of pandemic and can be controlled by up to February 2021. However, this might be taken as only an assumption and the use of masks, sanitizers, social distancing need to be continued until the vaccine comes.

Declining active cases is a good sign but it cannot be misinterpreted. If we look at the situation of other countries, then the future seems unpredictable. Italy was at the number one position in the world in terms of active cases after the outbreak of the virus. Later on, USA took that position. After reaching their peaks, both these countries experienced a gradual decline in Corona positive numbers. But for the past few weeks, the number of active cases has increased so much as they witnessed the largest number of infections in a single day since the beginning. This second wave of Corona is worrying. As winter arrives in India, predictions of experiencing the second wave cannot be ruled out.

Will the upcoming festive season again turn the curve of COVID-19 in India?

People started a new normal routine of life in which they are doing their daily chores but with taking protective measures. The use of alcohol-based hand rubs and masks has increased. People are maintaining social distancing in public places. In the seasons of festivities, families get together for many social events. These events increase the risk of spreading communicable diseases. This increased mobility can also increase the rate of infection of Coronavirus.

Kerala recorded a high number of positive cases after the celebration of Onam (a harvest festival). Some scientists warned that if people let down their guards then the upcoming months may again face a peak of active infections with a U-turn in Covid-19 curve. The coming season of winter brings lots of smog and air pollution with it. So, it can be turned to another peak especially in the northern region of India as chances of getting an infection will increase in the winter. The recent decline in cases is an assuring sign but we should not relax ourselves.

 To get more information on the risk of increasing air pollution in India, go to the given link:

Conclusion

Increasing the recovery rate is normal in any pandemic, but it improves with the course of time. The decline of active cases can be turned good for the Indian economy also. But with so much uncertainty it is difficult to predict the future. Meanwhile what we can do is keep following the safety precautions to avoid getting infected and try to boost our immunity for fighting health problems. Stay careful and stay strong!

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